Although it’s too early to confirm the start of the monsoon withdrawal in October, an independent forecaster from the ‘Vagaries of Weather’ blog suggested the upcoming rain might delay the departure of the monsoon in the state. Monsoon withdrawal from Pune and Mumbai may not occur before October 10-12.

IMD scientist S D Sanap said that rains are expected to resume across the state, including Pune, after September 23, with heavier downpours likely from September 26 due to a developing low-pressure area over the Bay of Bengal.

Moderate Rain in Pune, Heavy Showers Expected in Konkan

Sanap noted that previous low-pressure systems had minimal impact on Maharashtra, but the upcoming system forming over the west-central Bay of Bengal is expected to move northwest, bringing rainfall to the state.

IMD’s latest update highlights an east-west shear zone, along with an upper air cyclonic circulation over the west-central Bay of Bengal, which is contributing to the likely formation of a low-pressure area around September 23. This weather activity is expected to increase rainfall across Maharashtra.

According to Sanap, parts of the state can expect near-normal rain until September 26, with above-normal rainfall forecasted for the following week, particularly between October 3-9. However, forecasts beyond two weeks remain less reliable.

The IMD has predicted light to moderate showers for Pune starting on September 23. Independent forecaster Abhijit Modak pointed out that favorable conditions for the withdrawal of the Southwest Monsoon from West Rajasthan and Kachchh are expected around September 23. This could lead to increased rainfall in Maharashtra as the low-pressure system heads toward the state, especially in areas like Marathwada, east Pune district, and Ahmednagar. Heavy rain is anticipated in the ghats of Madhya Maharashtra and Konkan between September 26 and 28.